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Squeak! - the 10 biggest storage companies in 2005? - STORAGEsearch names them.

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April 2003 - by Zsolt Kerekes editor of STORAGEsearch

See also:- the SSD Buyers Guide
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Which companies are going to be the winners in the enterprise storage market of the future? This long range forecast predicts the top 10 storage companies, by revenue, at the end of 2005.

This is the 3rd year in which I've published this list. So if you're skeptical about this type of article check out the earlier versions from 2001 and 2002.
The Top 10 Biggest (revenue) STORAGE companies in 2005

note - these are listed in alphabetic order.
company products notes
Dell Computer storage systems Unlike most other US computer manufacturers, Dell was profitable and still growing fast through the recession of 2002. In February 2003 - Dell ended its fiscal 2003 by posting best-ever quarterly product shipments, revenue and operating profit in the period ended Jan. 31. Quarterly revenue was $9.7 billion, up 21% percent from the previous year.

Revenue from external storage systems increased 87% year-over-year.

In April 2003 - Dell announced that it has begun manufacturing Dell/EMC CX200 storage systems worldwide. This carries on from the successful reseller agreement which Dell signed with EMC in October 2001.
EMC storage systems and software During 2002, EMC continued the trend of halving its revenue compared to the $9 Billion peak it achieved in FY 2000. This was confirmed on April 8, 2003 when EMC announced preliminary financial results for the first quarter of 2003 within the range of $1.35 billion and $1.4 billion.

Meanwhile the company claimed that it was maintaining its lead position in the storage market. In March 2003 - EMC said it was the world's #1 provider of networked information storage (Open SAN and NAS) and external RAID systems once again in 2002, according to market share data by research firm IDC.

How do EMC's bullish claims match up to the reality?

I long ago came to the conclusion that EMC was losing most market share, to small and medium size storage vendors which do not get listed at all in most market research studies. Hundreds of storage companies outside the top 10 list have been nibbling away at the customer bases of EMC and HP during the last 2 years which is why the storage revenues of these market leading companies have declined at the same time that total storage spending has increased. They're still storage market leaders, but they sell less than they used to.



Later... - EMC Bounces Back

Hopkinton, MA - April 15, 2004 - EMC Corporation today reported strong, double-digit revenue growth and triple-digit net income growth on a year-to-year basis for the first quarter of 2004.

Total consolidated revenue for EMC's first quarter was $1.87 billion, 35% higher than the $1.38 billion reported for the first quarter of 2003. Net income for the first quarter of 2004 was $140 million. This compares with net income of $35 million for the first quarter of 2003. ...EMC profile

Editor's comments:- EMC's revenue peaked at $9 Billion in FY 2000 and it looks like it will pass that milestone in the coming year. To give the company credit, after being hit hard by the dotcom crash, EMC reengineered itself, took out costs and invested in major partnerships with Dell (in the US) and Fujitsu Siemens (in Europe) which means it now has a much stronger launching point to take advantage of the upturn in US IT spending. EMC's growth rate may actually accelerate - because during the recession many users switched to lesser known storage brands to save cost. If market optimism returns - then the strongest storage brands - EMC, HP and IBM could benefit the most.
Fujitsu RAID, flash memory, hard drives and other diverse storage products For the 12 months ending March 31, 2003, Fujitsu had estimated revenues of $39 Billion. In August 2002, Fujitsu signed up as a reseller of EMC storage.

The company seems to have stopped renaming its subsidiaries. I commented to one of their PRs that the first press release I usually got from a Fujitsu company was usually that were setting up the new company. The second press release would be to say that they were closing it down and renaming it again. This was very confusing.

Despite that Fujitsu's Softek is one of the world's top 10 storage software companies, measured by revenue. Other parts of the company manufacture hard drives, optical drives, flash memory, and mainframe class storage.

If you imagine a spectrum of computer companies ranked according to marketing hype, then at the bright end heading into the ultra violet end of the spectrum you would get Sun Microsystems, while at the other end, in the infra red you would get Fujitsu. Fujitsu has a good reputation for supplying reliable products, but the company seems to lack the marketing killer instinct. Or maybe that's why conservative buyers like the company.
Hitachi disk drives, RAID For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2002, Hitachi, Ltd.'s consolidated sales totaled 7,994 billion yen ($60.1 billion).

In a $2.05 billion acquisition, Hitachi Global Storage Technologies commenced operations on January 1, 2003, integrating IBM's HDD production and marketing bases with Hitachi's U.S. HDD sales division.

Hitachi Data Systems' Lightning RAID got a respray and new engine in January 2003. This is big storage - which provides total usable system capacity of 128TB in a RAID-5 configuration.

In March 2003 EMC and Hitachi, Ltd. buried the hatchet and announced the settlement of all pending patent infringement litigation. Hitachi (which has a tarnished history involving the copying of US technology and being sued about it) agreed to make some undisclosed payments to EMC. The companies also agreed to swap API's to help with compatibility issues for joint customers.
HP services, optical storage, RAID, tape, storage software etc When two of the top ten storage companies HP and Compaq merged into one, the resulting company became assured of a permanent entry in this list. However, integration problems at the new HP were cited by some storage suppliers as the reason for their own declines in revenue. In September 2002 HP said its storage revenue was down 15% year over year.

Despite those short term setbacks, there had been some financial successes from the HP / Compaq merger, although mostly among the lawyers who took part, and the analysts who sagely commented.

Computer industry buffs got a new book to read:- "Back-Fire", by Peter Burrows (ISBN 0-471-26765-1) published in 2003, which provided an unauthorized biography of Carly Fiorina as the backdrop to the merger and legal shenanigans.

Personally, I was anti the merger when it was announced. But after reading this book I got a reminder just how far the old HP had drifted away from being a world class company. They needed a good hard kick up the derriere. Fiorina has given them that, and without her, HP would now be a basket case. HP still has problems. But they are in remission.
IBM storage services, RAID, tape libraries, memory IBM has been selling off a lot of production capacity during the last year or so, including its HDD business to Hitachi.

In December 2002, market research company ITSMA reported that over 90% of decision makers are unable to recall more than 3 top storage brands:- EMC, IBM and HP.

With a brand strength like that, IBM could if it wanted to, feasibly stop all storage manufacturing altogether and still make it to this top 10 list as the world's biggest storage reseller.
Intel flash memory, iSCSI HBAs, GBICs and RAID controllers If you looked at Intel's web site during the first quarter of 2003 you would still have to search hard to find the word "storage". Intel still gives the impression of being a storage company in stealth mode. The foundations of Intel's listing here are its flash memory and RAID controller business units.

As I predicted in January 2001 Intel confirmed in a recent developer roadmap (February 2003) that it will put RAID onto PC motherboards. Intel's Canterwood chipset which will be introduced in the first half of 2003 will support Hyper-Threading Technology and have new features such as integrated Serial ATA/RAID.

In April 2003 Intel announced that it has shipped its 2 billionth flash memory unit It took Intel 12 years to ship its first billion discrete flash units and only three more years to ship the next billion discrete flash units. As flash goes into more mainstream products this growth will accelerate.

Also in April 2003, Intel announced that it was working with Emulex on storage focused I/O processors which would integrate Serial ATA, Serial Attached SCSI (SAS) and Fibre Channel interfaces within a single architecture. The products would emulate the protocols and software architecture of Emulex's Service Level Interface (SLI) technology which is already used in over 1 million fibre channel HBAs.
Maxtor disk drives With only $3.8 billion revenue in 2002 Maxtor is the smallest company in this top 10 list. But hey - Maxtor's revenue is still more than twice the size of VERITAS Software - so "small" is relative...

What Maxtor is doing, seems to be of great interest to STORAGEsearch readers. Maxtor was the #2 most visited company profile by our readers in 2002 .. In January 2003 Maxtor announced it had returned to profitability.

In February 2003, Maxtor announced that it would build a new manufacturing facility in the Suzhou Industrial Park in Suzhou, China expected to be completed in the second half of 2004. (Hopefully by then, we'll all be imune to SARS.)

Looking ahead there are new applications which will significantly increase the worldwide usage of hard disk drives. In consumer products disks are becoming more common in digital cameras and digital video recorders. And new IT applications such as disk to disk to disk backup could nearly double demand for disk storage. Maxtor is well placed to benefit from those trends.
Seagate Technology disk drives For the nine-month period ended March 28, 2003, Seagate reported revenue of $4.93 billion. That means Seagate has now overtaken EMC in annualized storage revenue.

Seagate claims that in FY2002 it shipped more enterprise drives than Maxtor, Fujitsu and IBM combined and that its storage revenue was 33% greater than Maxtor.
Sony optical drives, NAS, tape drives, tape libraries, and miscellanous storage Sony doesn't disclose its storage revenue, but in 2005 I think it will be about midway up this top 10 list.

In March 2003, in case there were still any doubters about Sony being more than just a maker of pretty portable gadgets and storage peripherals Sony staked its claim at the very top end of the storage food chain with the announcement of its PetaSite systems. These are expected to set a new standard for automated tape storage density with up to 250TB of native capacity per square meter of floor space, and a total native capacity of up to 1.2 petabytes (PB).

My own view is that the top end of the tape library market is the only safe place to be. The mid range enterprise market will eventually be replaced by disk to disk backup. That doesn't affect most library makers, because many of them already have low cost SATA disk arrays within their product lines. The main threat is to media manufacturers. But there will always be a big niche at the high end where tape is more economic. Sony is not taking any risks, and is just showing that it is perfectly happy to fill that demand.

Commenting on the company's direction for this article, Sony Electronics' Business Systems and Solutions Company Steve Baker, Vice President, Tape Storage Solutions said "Sony is committed to the future of tape and maintaining its viability as a leading storage platform. Looking ahead, one of our primary visions is to complement rapidly growing disk capacities. Our new SAIT format, with a native capacity of 500GB per cartridge is on track to meet this goal. Above all, we are dedicated to our customers, who span multiple industries and applications, and intend to stay one step ahead of their needs."
Sanity check:- how accurate was the long term prediction for 2003?

H
ow much can you rely on a prediction that's published 2 to 3 years before the financial reports come in? You can check for yourself my prediction for the top 10 storage companies in 2003, which was published in January 2001. It was 80% accurate.

Two of the companies in that list failed to grasp the storage nettle tightly enough:- Cisco Systems and Microsoft. Both have had other things on their minds in recent years.

Survival was uppermost in Cisco's thinking, after the bottom dropped out of the telecoms market and left it with a shrinking customer base. Cisco has recently made gestures of interest in the storage market, but their storage related revenue doesn't yet qualify them for entry in a top 20 storage list, let alone this one. After our publication date for this article, Cisco announced it had signed up EMC as a reseller of its SAN switches.

Meanwhile during the last few years Microsoft was fighting to avoid being broken up by anti-trust lawyers and it would not have been prudent for the company to make aggressive moves to dominate another market. Microsoft's Server 2003 OS launched in mid April may give the company some hooks on which to hang a storage strategy.

Both companies could make a comeback to this list in future years. But not yet.



Companies which dropped out of last year's top 10 list?

Compaq was the only company which dropped out from last year's long range prediction, because it is now part of HP.

How about the storage start ups?.

The continuing recession in 2002 once again prevented any of the VC funded storage startups growing to a level where they could be considered as serious contenders for the top 10 list. In fact the marketing efforts of many new storage companies was so abysmal during 2002 that hey present little real threat to the top 20 established storage companies. This is such a competitive market it's doubtful whether the VC industry as a whole will ever get a net payback on the billions of dollars invested in this segment. However, the game is far from over. Some smaller investments, in software companies, could still reap fruit.
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the Biggest Storage Companies in 2012
Editor:- June 27, 2008 - STORAGEsearch.com published a new article which asks the question - "who will be the 10 Biggest Storage Companies in 2012?"
predicting the future article This carries on a popular series of annual articles first published in 2001 - which made remarkably accurate long range (3 years ahead) predictions in the storage market. But for reasons explained in the new article, it may be the last one in the series. ...read the article
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