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Squeak! - the 10 biggest storage companies in 2008? - STORAGEsearch names them.

..........May 2005 by Zsolt Kerekes editor of STORAGEsearch

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storage reliability
How Solid is Hard Disk's Future?
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The fastest growing storage companies
Is the SSD Market Recession-Proof?
the Top 10 Solid State Disk Companies
Green Storage - Trends and Predictions

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Which companies are going to be the winners in the storage market of the future? This long range forecast (published in May 2005) predicts the top 10 storage companies, by revenue, at the end of 2008. That's the year in which the storage market will exceed $200 billion revenue.

This is the 5th year in which I've published this list. My accuracy rate for these 1,000 day ahead forcasts has been about 80%. Check out the earlier versions of this article published in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004. For what's happened in the past see storage history.
The Top 10 Biggest (revenue) STORAGE companies in 2008

note - these are listed in alphabetic order.
company products notes
Dell Computer storage systems



Dell news
As well as being one of the biggest, Dell was also one of the world's fastest growing storage companies in 2005 - reporting 49% storage revenue growth.

This is a company which doesn't need any lessons from anyone about how to run a successful storage systems business.

Are there any threats on the horizon which could damp its success at commoditizing enterprise storage?

I doubt it.

Dell's business model is not to innovate computer technology - but to learn from the market what common factors are needed by the biggest number of customers and then to make those products available in a safe, unexciting, easy-to-buy format. That sounds a lot easier than it is to do. Most IT companies don't manage it and instead are swept along on many currents of high tech which swirl around and lead nowhere profitable.

Increasing standardisation of network storage actually makes it easier for companies like Dell to do business.

And if there's a paradigm shift to something completely new?

I assume Dell will monitor that - and when demand gets big enough and homogeneuous enough Dell will offer that on its website too.
EMC storage systems and software



EMC news
EMC did a superb job of reengineering the company after the dotcom crash - to meet the new challenges posed by 100+ VC funded storage startups which wanted to suck its marrow.

In 2004 - EMC emerged as one of the fastest growing storage companies with 35% revenue growth. Although this slowed down in 2005 to 20% - that was still well above the rate for the rest of the RAID storage industry.

Critical to EMC's continuing success will be the longevity of its OEM relationship with Dell - which resells EMC storage. The increasing popularity of disk to disk backup - which 80% of corporate users in the US and Europe said they would adopt in various surveys - suggests that demand for big iron storage is not going to go away.

But doing more of the same will not be enough to sustain a top 10 listing into 2010.

Two new factors will start to preoccupy the attention of EMC's biggest customers in the period 2006-2008.

(1) - compliance solutions and storage search engines which help users locate legally required documents fast.

(2) - solid state disk accelerators - which have price tickets as large or larger than many high end EMC products.

EMC will have to acquire or work with companies in those spaces in such a way that the customer still regards their storage as being EMC. EMC has a good track record at successful acquisitions and partnerships - but this will give top management a new set of challenges.
HP services, optical storage, RAID, tape, storage software etc



HP news
When you think about HP's storage business what kind of image comes to mind?

For me - it's DDR. No, not the Double Data Rate memory that younger readers might instantly recall - but DDR as in Deutsche Democratic Republic - the Eastern part of Germany that was under the Soviet yoke during 1945 to 1989.

DDR had some world class manufacturers, but their products were always slightly out of date or tired looking. The glitz and specs weren't the best - but they were solid and built to last. When the Berlin wall came down - those DDR based industries were mostly unable to withstand the pressure of a free competitive market.

HP's storage business had probably been losing its edge throughout the period 2001 to 2003 - but this was masked by the general IT recession in which most companies suffered, making comparisons hard. In 2004 and the first half of 2005 - many parts of the storage market bounced back into double digit revenue growth. But HP bucked the trend by continuing to report declines in strategic storage segments - even while the rest of HP's business was doing quite well.

What's the reason for this?

Superficial analysis might say something like - HP is too big to manage - or the Compaq/HP storage merger didn't quite work out as its proponents hoped.

But I suspect the real cause of HP's failure goes much deeper than that. HP's strength is also its biggest weakness.

What do I mean by that?

HP's strength in the enterprise - is that it supports a big legacy of proprietary operating systems, software and vintage storage systems which it supports - and probably supports them very well past the natural market death of those technologies. If you're a customer using legacy storage products which HP is supporting with new product releases - then you're not going to complain about that. In fact you are probably delighted. But the sheer complexity of managing a product matrix which has to work with so much old stuff to avoid making important customers upset - makes fast product introduction and innovation impossible.

While new white box companies can bring out products which just support the latest platform fashions and ignore anything which came before they sprang into being - the HP storage managers can't. And at the high end - HP competes with Dell and EMC who are masters at working in open environments.

So what's going to happen to HP's storage business?

It won't go away - because legacy customers will still pay to be supported for many years. But it's not going to catch the fast growth waves either. If it was a separate business - you'd try and sell it someone else. If you were a venture capitalist -who owned it - you'd stop funding - and tell the management they should turn it into a cash cow reseller and services company and stop making new stuff which is like a Skoda at a Mercedes price.
IBM storage services, software, RAID, tape libraries, memory



IBM news
In 2004 IBM's revenue from storage systems and storage software was over $5 billion. Added to this was a multibillion dollar storage services business. But the company has been coming under pressure on two fronts:-

on the hardware side; competition from Dell and EMC, and

on the services side pressure from other service companies like HP and also the trend to automate IT services with software.

IBM reacted to these pressures in Q205 by laying off 13,000 employees to make its services business more competitive, and signing an agreement to resell NAS systems from Network Appliance.

I expect IBM will grow its storage hardware business mostly by reselling and integrating 3rd party products rather than developing them in-house. IBM is still one of the world's best known storage brands, and for many specialized storage OEMs, selling in partnership with IBM and its VARs represents a good route for getting into the datacenter.
Micron Technology RAM and flash



Micron news
In the 4 quarters leading up to publication of this article Micron reported revenue of $4.6 billion, an increase of 24% compared to the previous year.

The RAM market goes from boom to bust every couple of years or so and in April 2005 Semico Research predicted a decline of 3% for the RAM market in 2005.

I'm not sure anyone knows exactly where we're we're going to be on the RAM roller coaster by 2008 - but I think that gigabytes (or terabytes) of RAM will remain a priority for PC (and server) speedups for the forseeable future.
Microsoft

new entry!
operating systems, backup software and storage software

Microsoft news
Silly me! I first put Microsoft in my top 10 list in 2001. Then waited a long time while nothing happened. I forgot that Microsoft isn't an innovative company and reacts to market changes as fast as a snail dragging a brick across a gravel drive. But it's a big brick! When the snail gets there, it's hard not to notice and if you want to park you have to drive the car around.

Unlike the very public wake up call in December 1995 when Microsoft suddenly realised the threat posed to it by the web and the dominant (near 100%) position of Netscape on desktop browsers (which led to the crash development and bundling of Internet Explorer) Microsoft's reaction to the threat and opportunities posed by the storage market has been quieter and slower paced.

In the last 4 years Microsoft has been fighting on a number of fronts, in the courts - anti-trust battles around the world (some of which it won, some of which it lost), in the server market - against Linux, and in the cellphone market. That was not a good time to make noises about a really big future opportunity - which could propel the company outside the PC market and make money (unlike Xbox).

The storage market in 2004 was worth $70 billion which is big and hard to miss even if you're Microsoft. It's much bigger than the server market, although still less than the PC market. The good thing from Microsoft's point of view, was the absence of a single dominant challenger in the storage software platform space. (There were some small companies who burned their VC money in this very cause - of establishing a storage software OS - but they sank a long time ago.) Whenever Microsoft first looked at the storage software market they could see it was very fragmented. They could take their time, makes some plans. And they have done. But their time has now come.

There are two main areas in the storage market in which Microsoft will generate revenue.

(1) - Providing the operating system for storage appliances ranging from high end NAS RAID systems down to handheld video phones.

The ability to provide a platform which integrates video, data and networking standards from wireless to fiber in a simple unified way which works with most desktop, server and handheld applications is the reason that Microsoft already has the dominant market share in this embedded market. I don't know how much they charge for an oem license but if you multiply a small amount of money by hundreds of millions of consumer gadgets and tens of millions of network appliance storage gadgets (every year!) then even a small license fee starts to mount up.

Microsoft's integration within storage appliances will also make it easier for servers to take advantage of low cost storage which is based on Microsoft's OS. That's a virtuous circle - and not bundling. But it gives users a simpler integration experience than they would get by say mixing low cost Linux servers with low cost Windows storage. The Linux servers aren't going to be able to use all those features. So the embedded storage strategy will help get bigger Windows server market share from the bottom up.

(2) - Another area where Microsoft has announced intentions, but not yet shipped commercial products, is in the network backup market. I'll mention it, but by itself it wouldn't lead to their inclusion in this list. The reason? The whole storage software segment in 2004 was worth less than $6 billion and you're not going to get the snail out of bed for a share of that pittance.

...Later:- September 27, 2005 - Microsoft launched its disk to disk backup software solution called Data Protection Manager - with a competitive attack on slower and more expensive (tape) based backup software from Veritas/Symantec. DPM is being bundled into backup appliances from leading hardware vendors.
Samsung Electronics

new entry!
RAM, flash, hard disks, and solid state disks



Samsung news
The world's largest RAM maker, Samsung's 2004 RAM revenue was $7.5 billion, according to iSuppli. Samsung's flash revenue in 2004 was $3.9 billion, according to Semico Research. But its disk business is the one you should be watching out for.

In Q205 the company made some interesting announcements. First that it was working with Microsoft on developing a hybrid drive for notebooks which would include both flash and hard disk technology in the same device to save operating power. (Assuming that Microsoft's OS developers can deliver a suitable caching scheme.

But more significantly, Samsung also announced it would enter the solid state disk market in August 2005, with 1.8" and 2.5" drives aimed at the notebook market which would offer faster performance than hard disks, lower weight and much longer battery life. This is the first time in this phase of the SSD market's development that a multibillion dollar company (Samsung's 2004 revenue was $55.2 billion ) has entered the market. If successful Samsung's SSD business on its own could be worth billions of dollars on its own by 2008.
Seagate Technology disk drives



Seagate news
In the 4 quarters leading up to publication of this article Seagate reported revenue of $6.73 billion. That was only 4.5% up on the previous year - but in the most recent reported quarter revenue had increased 42% compared to the previous year - sign that things were picking up for the battered hard disk maker.

In the time frane we're looking at - flash drives will nibble away at the low end of the hard disk drive market possibly detsroying any potential for revenue growth that would come from new applications for HDDs in consumer gadgets.

Seagate is a survivor. Founded in 1979, and outlasting nearly 100 serious disk maker competitors in that time, I expect it will be the very last HDD maker left in business when the day finally comes (as it will in another decade) that rotating magnetic media ceases to be a commercially viable form of mass storage.

article:- Flash Memory vs. Hard Disk Drives - Which Will Win?
Sun Microsystems

new entry!
RAID, Disk to disk backup, services, tape backup and software

Sun news
Sun didn't need IDC's Q205 Server Market Report to realise that the Linux server market, which it scorned for so long, had already overtaken Sun's own server market revenue on a quarterly basis. With an order of magnitude difference in server revenue growth rates between Sun's own Solaris (2.7%) and Linux (35%), that way ahead did not offer sufficient growth.

It was already clear from Sun's moves in 2004 and in an article I wrote in Q105 that Sun was already picking out a growth path based on storage and was heading towards $3 billion storage revenue in pursuit of a born again storage strategy which was markedly different to that which Sun had tried earlier in the decade which had failed.

Sun's acquisition of StorageTek announced June 2005 added not just $2 billion of storage revenue, but more significantly within that a billion dollar storage services business which could tie all the pieces together for enterprise customers, and a reputation earned by surviving 36 years in the ever changing storage market.

In 2004 STORAGEsearch estimated the worldwide storage market revenue exceeded $70 billion a much bigger prize to aim for than the server market - which was about $45 billion. Sun was a credible supplier of storage systems into the fragmented Linux market, long before the StorageTek merger. If successful Sun's new storage business will soon outgrow revenues from its server products, although the large installed SPARC server base will provide ample opportunities for cash from services, processor and storage upgrades.
...Later:- July 2007 - Sun's performance in the storage market has been very disappointing in the years since this article was first published.

At a time when many other top 10 storage companies were reporting over 20% revenue growth (2nd calendar quarter 2007) Sun reported 10% storage revenue decline. STORAGEsearch.com was planning to drop Sun from its 2011 top 10 storage list long before these results. But it would be remiss of us not to signal that downgrade in status before the new article is published.
Toshiba DVD drives, hard disk drives and flash memory



Toshiba news
Toshiba's flash revenue alone (on the order of $9 billion in 2004/5) is big enough to keep its position comfortable in this list.

In 2004 Toshiba introduced the world's highest capacity 1.8" and 2.5" hard drives.

In May 2005, Toshiba acquired the US hard disk drive development unit, from Panasonic, along with about 50 engineers to increase its small form factor HDD development resources.

Also in May 2005, Toshiba announced its HD DVD-ROM with a data capacity of 45 gigabytes, demonstrating continuing leadership in the optical storage market.

The company is very confident about the future of flash having increased its investments in more wafer fab capacity which will start churning out products in the 2nd half of 2005.
Western Digital hard disk drives



Western Digital news
In the 4 quarters leading up to publication of this article Western Digital reported revenue of approximately $3.5 billion an increase of 15% compared to the year before. That makes it the smallest company in this list with slightly lower current revenue than Maxtor, which exited the top 10.

But unlike Maxtor, Western Digital has been more successful in getting its drives used in new consumer markets. About a quarter of its revenue (in calendar Q105) was derived from non-desktop PC sources.

In January 2005 the company announced it would launch 1-inch drives. That opens the door to high growth applications, such as MP3 players, PDAs, digital still cameras and digital video cameras.

Commenting on this John Monroe, a research vice president at Gartner said "We are witnessing a global cultural revolution in portable digital entertainment. Hard-drive enabled MP3 players are already becoming ubiquitous, and by 2008, at least 8% of mobile phones could contain a hard drive. These are enormous new markets. It now seems likely that 1-inch hard drive shipments exceeded 8 million units in 2004, up from only 903,000 units in 2003. The compound annual growth rate for 1-inch hard drives should exceed 85% through 2008."
Editor's footnote:- if you've been counting you may have noticed this list actually includes eleven companies and not ten. I've done that a few times in the past as well to reflect the errors and uncertainties in this type of long range forcast. For example the Compaq/HP merger which affected an earlier edition of this article.
SAS disk duplicators for  server oems from ICS
Serial Attached SCSI - disk duplicators
from Intelligent Computer Solutions
New Trends which will Affect the Market

New high density low cost per terabyte optical storage will pose a challenge to the position now held by high capacity hard disk storage. Being unproven in terms of archival longevity, it's unlikely that the new technologies will replace magnetic storage in the enterprise, but in the home they will make a dent in hard disk makers' business plans for the mass storage archive box which will store consumers' movies and music.

Solid state disk storage will be a 10 billion dollar market which achieves traction in 2 main applications. In high end servers (helping to get the fastest performance from high throughput but flattening Gigahertz clock rate processors). Also in low end portable consumer products - where cost, weight and power consumption compared to hard drives will be the decisive factor. In the notebook market flash SSDs will enable sub 1Kg notebooks to deliver the same application performance as much heavier (3Kg) portables and desktops - while using low power Intel processors which run at 1/3 the Gigahertz speed of the heavier PCs. Therefore we will see SSD storage spending replacing spending in microprocessors at both the top and bottom end of users' IT budgets.

Compliance and security products will become a significant size market. But I doubt if we're going to see a unified all in one product suiting all users emerging. Today companies in this space offer a confusing range of solutions ranging from standalone appliances to add-on software. With the wide range of customer data architectures in place it is likely that the new market will remain fragmented in many different types of solutions.

Standardisation issues in storage networking will focus attention on solutions for the emerging networked home. That will drive down costs for entry level NAS. Eventually the biggest IP NAS makers will be consumer companies rather than enterprise companies as they are now. But that won't happen till a couple of years beyond the scope of this report.

Risks may be posed by some of the newer technologies in the optical, non volatile memory and magnetic storage markets. With the compelling need to rush new products to market while their capability envelopes look competitive and before the ageing characteristics are fully known, it's possible we'll see some kind of industry wide storage media failure in the next 3 to 4 years - similar to the kind of hiccup caused by Intel's floating point processor flaws in the early 1990s, or Sun's flaky SPARC cache design in 2001.

But unlike those previous industry scares, a storage media failure on a wide scale won't be as easy to temporarily fix as a software patch (Intel) or disabling the cache (Sun). Instead a it's likely that millions of people will lose some data. All the more reason for data owners to spread their risks, avoid common mode failures and not put their current and backup data in the same kind of storage bin. Even without such a disaster, reliability is going to become the hot topic in the storage industry in the next few years as users learn that internal failure rates which did no harm when data sets were smaller - can almost guarantee uncorrectable data corruption when data sets get very large.

We'll keep you updated of all these developments, real and imaginary, as they happen in our storage news page.



Companies which dropped out of last year's top 10 list?

To retain a place in the 2008 Top 10 List (compared to the 2006 list) it wasn't simply enough to report 2005 storage revenues in the region of $4 billion followed by years of single or low double digit growth. It was comparison with the expected meteoric growth of the new entrants to the list which meant that some companies had to drop out. So there is no discredit to those who dropped out. They may still be significant top 20 companies in $100 billion storage market of 2008 - but that's not what this list is about.

Hitachi and Maxtor dropped out of the list this year, see why below.

Hitachi's storage revenues come from 2 main parts, its high end RAID systems, marketed by Hitachi Data Systems ($1.2 billion revenue in 2004), and its hard disk drive business Hitachi GST ( $10.3 billion revenue in 2005). HDS is dependent on other OEMs who resell its systems, and its revenue failed to meet the industry growth benchmark in 2004. In contrast the growing success of Dell and EMC make it tough for HDS to find a gap in which to grow. Hitachi GST has some exciting new products aimed at both the low end consumer market and the high end 4Gps FC and SAS markets. But even though I expect to see very high growth rates in HGST's revenue the company is starting from a low base - and is unlikely to generate the $5 billion plus revenue it needs to stay in this list.

Maxtor has a very high dependence on the desktop market (nearly 95% of unit shipments) in Q105. That's a very competitive market with low long term growth prospects compared to some other disk segments. This exposure means the company is vulnerable to big PC OEMs switching to alternative suppliers.In the 4 quarters leading up to publication of this article Maxtor reported revenue of $3.8 billion, 9% down on the previous year. The company said in February 2005 it plans to reduce U.S. headcount by up to 200 over the course of the year. That followed an earlier reduction in the previous year. ...Later:- in December 2005 - Maxtor announced it was being acquired by Seagate
.
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Highest Performing SATA RAID
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Squeak! - the Solid State Disks Buyers Guide
This is the 4th annual edition of this very popular report.

The earlier edition of this article was the most popular storage article viewed by STORAGEsearch.com's readers in the previous year.
the solid state disks buyers guide
The SSD Buyers Guide lists all SSD products commercially available in the market by form factor, interface type and memory technology. It also includes a summary of key milestones in the SSD market in the past year. ...read the article, solid state disks
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Teralyte removable disk to disk backup for SMBs
ejectable disk to disk backup for SMBs
Teralyte from Idealstor
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the Biggest Storage Companies in 2012
Editor:- June 27, 2008 - STORAGEsearch.com published a new article which asks the question - "who will be the 10 Biggest Storage Companies in 2012?"

This carries on a popular series of annual articles first published in 2001 - which made remarkably accurate long range (3 years ahead) predictions in the storage market.
predicting the future article But for reasons explained in the new article, it may be the last one in the series. ...read the article
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Squeak! - SSD Myths and Legends - "write endurance"
Does the fatal gene of "write endurance" built into flash solid state disks prevent their deployment in intensive server acceleration applications - such as RAID systems?
It was certainly true as little as a few years ago.

What's the risk with today's devices?

This article looks at the current generation of products and calculates how much (or how little) you should be worried.
read the article - SSD Myths and Legends
RAM based SSDs have been used alongside RAID for years - but flash SSDs are physically smaller and have bigger capacity (upto 412G in 2.5", 512G in 3.5") and are lower cost than RAM-SSDs and could actually be configured in standard RAID boxes. F-SSDs aren't as fast as RAM based products but a single flash SSD can deliver 20,000 IOPs - which when scaled up in an array - starts to look interesting. ...read the article, storage reliability solid state disks
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read the article by ICS - Sanitization Methods
Sanitization Methods for Cleaning Up Hard Disk Drives - article by Intelligent Computer Solutions

Removing the data on old unwanted disk drives has become a concern for all users.

This article reviews the various methods available to sanitize hard disks along with the advantages and disadvantages in each case....read the article, ...Intelligent Computer Solutions profile, disk sanitizers
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Squeak! - the Fastest Growing Storage Companies
read the article - the Fastest Growing storage companies in 2005
This is the 6th annual edition of this popular article, and is compiled from analyzing the reported results from the top 1,000 storage companies.

The top 3 companies had over 300% year on year revenue growth.

If you're looking to team with successful storage companies or want to emulate their success, this article will tell you who they are and the market segments they are in. ...read the article
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read article by Plasmon the Impact of Compliance  on Archival Storage Strategies
the Impact of Compliance on Archival Storage Strategies - article by Plasmon

It's difficult enough protecting and archiving your data so that it's available to the right people at the right time (and cost). But now that's only part of the problem. With so many new rules and regulations which prescribe how you should destroy data records at the appropriate time - how do you guarantee that they stay deleted?

Archiving data on the wrong kind of media could mean you run the risk of breaking the law. Advances in the data recovery industry, and the future cohabitation of storage search-engines both mean that Compliance Officers have to pay much more attention to the ways in which data is dispersed and disposed of in different types of media.

This article summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of currently available market technologies. ... read the article, ...Plasmon profile, Optical Libraries
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article - the Dangers of Removable Storage Media by Pointsec
the Dangers of Removable Storage Media - article by Pointsec

In the early James Bond films of the 1960s, viewers were introduced to an array of implausible (at the time) portable high tech spy gadgets. Nowadays we know from our own everyday experience that something the size of a cigarette lighter can actually be a video camera with its own wireless internet access.

The proliferation of miniature high capacity storage devices creates a serious problem for commercial and national security. This article provides an up to date picture of the intrinsic dangers posed by current removable storage technologies. ...read the article, ...Pointsec profile, Security, Removable Storage
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click to read article by SiliconSystems
Increasing Flash Solid State Disk Reliability - article by SiliconSystems

Solid state disks, based on flash technology, have greatly improved in performance in recent years and now compete head to head with RAM based accelerator systems. Flash also has significant advatanges in servers compared to RAM SSDs due to low power consumption.

But if you think that all solid state disks which use flash are equally reliable and enduring then think again.

That's a bit like saying that a Mercedes 300SL sports coupe is as tough as a Tiger tank because both were made in Germany and both are built out of metal. But as Oddball (Donald Sutherland) says in the movie Kelly's Heroes "I ain't messing with no Tigers."

This article by SiliconSystems, shows how their patented architecture cleverly manages the wear out mechanisms inherent in all flash media to deliver a disk lifetime that is about 4 times greater than of other enterprise flash products and upto 100 times greater than intrinsic flash memory. ...read the article, ...SiliconSystems profile, Solid state disks
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Squeak! - Animal Brands and Metaphors in the Storage Market
Squeak! - Animal Brands and Metaphors in the Storage Market
Animal marketing metaphors are popular in service industries, but you'd be surprised how many companies have used animals in their marketing of data storage products and services.

The storage market was worth over $150 billion in 2005, and as it gets bigger - more companies will turn to animal brands to help differentiate their otherwise bland products and lend them artificial (or deserving) characters and virtues.

The idea behind this type of marketing is to suggest positive connotations so it's unlikely that anyone will choose to associate their products with gremlins. But you may be surprised by the population of the storage ark.

This reference articles lists all known companies who have furry marketing brands, and also includes some which are slimy, scaly and scary too. ...read the article, Mice in storage

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