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2010 - 1st Fizzings in the SSD Bubble?

by Zsolt Kerekes, editor - StorageSearch.com

Analysts will look back on 2010 as - "Year 1 of the SSD Market Bubble."

Fermentation has already begun.
The 2010 SSD harvest will be a memorable vintage.
Can you realistically sample the benefits of heady new
SSD-powered apps and avoid the risk of painful hangovers?

2010 - 1st Fizz in the SSD Market Bubble

I called 2009 - the Year of SSD Market Confusion.

When I was deciding on a suitable headline for 2010 I was tempted to take the easy way out and simply refer to it as "the Year of Even Greater Market Confusion". But that would have missed the essential elements of what I think will make 2010 different.

We are now at a stage in the development of the SSD market - where even the dogs in the street know this is going to be a multibillion dollar market. The days of the "SSD deniers" and "SSD market entry procrastinators" are behind us.

In one way that's a good thing. But in another important way - it's not.

Senior management in all sizes of storage company now understand that the risk of saying nothing about their SSD plans (whether they exist in reality or not) is that customers will filter them out of the SSD decision loop. If you don't have a product line that's shipping - tough luck! Customers will no longer wait for you to catch up with what they expect to hear about this important subject.

Faced with the risk of being sidelined - we already saw in 2009 that what vendors will do in this predicament - is to throw any product at the wall that they think they can get to market. And in 2010 we're going to see an avalanche of really badly designed and untried SSD technologies (and more prototypes masquerading as real products) coming to market and hoping to hit your visibility horizon.

To make matters worse - there will also be plenty more examples of SSD technologies which might work in some applications - being mis-marketed into applications which are completely unsuitable. The factors contributing to this will be:-

  • greed and pressure to compete and survive at any cost

    SSD revenue will exceed $10 billion / year sometime in the next several years. That's old news. I published that market potential size prediction back in 2003. But it won't stop there.

    I now have good reasons for thinking that SSDs have the potential to eventually become a $100 billion / year market by the close of this decade.

    That's why I was careful to call 2010 - "Year 1 of the SSD Bubble." This bubble is going to steam into a tornado.
  • lack of education in the SSD vendor community (many of who don't know any more than you do), and the difficulty of arbitrating between contrary and conflicting claims about reliability
  • as in any bubble - the confidence that participating in a fast growing market produces better business results than not participating at all.
2010 will a year of many broken reputations and promises in the SSD market. How will you cope? Who can you trust?

You've already made the 1st important step. Many of the key thinkers and decision makers in the SSD market have used StorageSearch.com as an aid to set the direction of their compass. With their help, and with your help and together - we're going to do our best to help you emerge at the other end of this bubble - stronger than you went in - rather than burned out and disillusioned.

...Later:- the article above was written before 2010 had started.

What did happen? - These articles below give a month by month detailed narrative of key events, products and market developments in the SSD market in 2010

2010 Q1 - SSD market milestones
2010 Q2 - SSD market milestones
2010 Q3 to Q4 - SSD market milestones
SSD Bubble - article on storagesearch.com
Tasting the future. A tough job
but someone has to do it.
Experienced SSD Buyer Seeks Trustworthy Partner.
In 2010 over 80% of SSD business could be decided by power SSD specifiers who are no longer SSD virgins.

How was it for you?

For many 2009 was a rite of passage - and when they choose products for their next projects they'll be looking for more caring, trustworthy partners - not just suppliers who look good in the disco lights. Much of that SSD reputation - good or bad - is already in the public domain. But some is not.

the Survivor's Guide to enterprise SSDs - The SSD Jungle used to be a tropical paradise - far away and expensive to visit - so only the bold and rich went there. But now it's grown and mutated. You might go to bed one night in the city - and wake to find the SSD jungle has already taken over the streets.

Branding Strategies in the SSD Market is a series of case studies showing how SSD companies have used various brand messages to signal what they are all about. (Not just a bunch of chips in a box.)

Playing the enterprise SSD box riddle game - Can you guess what the next SSD box will look like? Can you guess what it will do?

The SSD Bookmarks safely introduces you to other high quality SSD resource sites - suggested by SSD industry leaders.

SSD ad - click for more info
SSDs - the big picture
Editor:- StorageSearch.com was the world's 1st publication to provide continuous editorial coverage and analysis of SSDs (in 1998) and in the 12 years which have followed we've led the market through many interesting and confusing times.
click to read the story about why SSDs are taking up so much time on so many web pages If you often find yourself explaining to your VC, lawyer or non technical BBQ guests why you spend so much time immersed in SSD web pages - and need a single, simple, not very technical reference to suggest - this may be the link they need.

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