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Squeak! - the 10 biggest storage companies in 2006? - STORAGEsearch names them.

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April 26, 2004..........by Zsolt Kerekes editor of STORAGEsearch

See also:- the SSD Buyers Guide
How Solid is Hard Disk's Future?
Predicting Future Flash SSD Performance
Flash Memory vs. Hard Disk Drives - Which Will Win?

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"Spellerbyte's ScryWareTM utility downloaded data from his crystal ball directly into Microsoft Excel."
Which companies are going to be the winners in the enterprise storage market of the future? This long range forecast predicts the top 10 storage companies, by revenue, at the end of 2006.

This is the 4th year in which I've published this list. My accuracy rate for these two year ahead forcasts has been about 80%. Check out the earlier versions of this article from 2001, 2002 and 2003.
The Top 10 Biggest (revenue) STORAGE companies in 2006

note - these are listed in alphabetic order.
company products notes
Dell Computer storage systems The world's largest computer maker outperformed the market by growing revenue and profit throughout the recession, and there's no reason to doubt that the company will reaps benefit from the IT market recovery too.

Dell had not reported 1st quarter revenue at press time but issued guidance to say the company anticipates fiscal first-quarter sales to reach $11.4 billion, 20% better than the same quarter one year ago

In an earlier quarter (ended Jan. 30, 2004 ) Dell reported that sales from PowerVault and Dell/EMC external storage systems were running at a $1.8 billion annual run rate and that overall storage revenue had grown 47%.

Dell is included in this list because it's also the world's largest reseller of storage, which is bundled internally in PCs and servers. In Q104 Dell shipped 7.68 million units of computer systems - 16% more than its nearest rival.
EMC storage systems and software At one stage during the 2000-2003 recession it looked as though EMC's revenue might drop to half its $9 billion peak. But then in April 2004 - EMC reported that revenue had bounced back. 35% year on year growth took the quarter to $1.87 billion. EMC signalled that it expects this high growth rate to continue.

After being hit hard by the dotcom crash, EMC reengineered itself, took out costs and invested in major partnerships with Dell (in the US) and Fujitsu Siemens (in Europe) which means it now has a much stronger launching point to take advantage of the upturn in US IT spending.

EMC's growth rate may actually accelerate - because during the recession many users switched to lesser known storage brands to save cost. If market optimism returns - then the strongest storage brands - EMC, HP and IBM could benefit the most.

I expect that EMC will comfortably surpass $10 billion annual revenue in the period covered by this article.
Hitachi GST

Hitachi Data Systems
disk drives, RAID Hitachi markets storage products through 2 main subsidiaries Hitachi Global Storage Technologies and Hitachi Data Systems.

Hitachi Global Storage Technologies, founded in 2003, which makes hard disk drives. Hitachi GST was formed as a result of the strategic combination of IBM and Hitachi's storage technology businesses. In March 2004 Hitachi GST announced the world's highest capacity 3.5" ATA hard drive, the 400GB Deskstar 7K400.

Hitachi Data Systems is one of the world's top 10 makers of enterprise storage RAID and SAN. Its products are badge engineered by Sun and HP.
HP services, optical storage, RAID, tape, storage software etc For the quarter ending Jan. 31, 2004 HP reported that its storage revenue had declined 2% year-over-year. Taking a realistic view of trends in tape storage, HP decided to exit the OEM tape library business. Overall however, HP reported quarterly revenue was up 9% to $19.5 billion fueled by PC and server sales.

I expect HP's storage business to grow during 2004 because it has one of the strongest storage brands and will benefit from customers switching back from cheaper no-name storage products, which benefited most during the recession.
IBM storage services, software, RAID, tape libraries, memory For the first-quarter of 2004 IBM reported revenue up 11% compared with the first quarter of 2003 to $20.1 billion. IBM's Storage Systems revenues increased due to strength in midrange disk and tape products. Revenues from Tivoli software increased 18%.

Like EMC and HP, IBM stands to gain from the recovery as buyers switch back to buying big brand storage.

The company continues innovating.

In April 2004 - IBM announced a breakthrough storage technology that is designed to help clients protect and recover critical data at global backup locations at some of the fastest speeds available. Called IBM Global Mirror for Enterprise Storage, the technology provides global backup and recovery protection at speeds approaching those achievable at local distances.
Maxtor disk drives In the 4 quarters leading up to publication of this article Maxtor reported revenue of $4.19 billion.

During Q104 , Maxtor shipped 13.6 million hard drives. IDE drive shipments in the first quarter totaled 12.8 million, including 1,549,000 to consumer electronics OEM customers. SCSI drive shipments were 828,000 compared with 854,000 in the fourth quarter of 2003.

Although there is more competition now in the hard disk drive market than in recent years, the IT market recovery and growing applications for HDDs in consumer applications should provide a positive outlook for manufacturers.
Micron Technology RAM and flash In the 4 quarters leading up to publication of this article Micron reported revenue of $3.7 billion.

The RAM market goes from boom to bust every couple of years or so and the 2000-2003 recession was a bad time for RAM manufacturers with pricing at half the level it is now (Q204). But better times are coming, the Semiconductor Industry Association expects RAM sales to grow 43% in 2004.

Anticipating improved market consitions, in November 2003 Micron announced the groundbreaking of a new DRAM memory module assembly and test facility in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. The 48,000-square foot facility will house advanced technology DRAM module assembly and testing for a wide range of high-density, high-speed memory, including next generation DDR2 based SDRAM modules. The exact schedule for completion of the facility will be dependent upon semiconductor industry market conditions.
Seagate Technology disk drives In the 4 quarters leading up to publication of this article Seagate reported revenue of $6.44 billion.

Although Seagate ships products into all the main markets which use disk drives, its main strength is in the enterprise storage market where it has approximately 48% market share based on unit shipments.
Toshiba DVD drives, hard disk drives and flash memory Toshiba Storage Device Division's is a subsidiary of the $52 billion Toshiba Corp. In 2004 Toshiba introduced the world's highest capacity 1.8" and 2.5" hard drives.

In April, 2004 Toshiba announced it was investing US$2.5 billion in a new wafer fab to make NAND flash memory. The 300-mm facility is expected to come on line in the second half of FY2005 (October 2005-March 2006), with an initial capacity of 10,000 wafers a month. At the full capacity currently planned this will climb to 37,500 wafers a month.

A new entrant to this list, Toshiba doesn't disclose its storage revenue. But I believe that, barring unforseen technology problems, the company's technology leadership in the small disk market will generate revenues which comfortably place it in this list by 2006.
Western Digital hard disk drives In the 4 quarters leading up to publication of this article Western Digital reported revenue of approximately $3 billion.

That makes its the smallest company in this list. But the company has managed to achieve growth while remaining profitable during the tail end of the IT recession. That bodes well for its prospects in the growth times ahead.
Companies which dropped out of last year's top 10 list?

Fujitsu, Intel and Sony dropped out of the list this year, see why below.

Intel - now that the PC market has recovered, Intel, as usual after every earlier IT recession, will refocus most of its resources back on its core and most profitable business - making processors.

Other activities which helped the company's revenue during the recession (such as flash memory) or which held out the promise of future revenue streams (such as RAID controllers) will be downplayed, spun off or terminated.

We've already seen that in Intel's results for the first calendar quarter of 2004 its Flash revenue of $417 million was lower than in previous years even though the flash market was experiencing double digit growth rates during this period. In fact AMD which reported $628 million memory sales in the same quarter is already a bigger memory company than Intel

Intel benefits from the storage market by providing most of the processors which go into NAS, RAID and SAN storage arrays, but the number of units makes that business insignificant to the company comppared with PC and server sales. Its agreement with Emulex (announced in 2003) on storage focused I/O processors is unlikely to generate volumes which will change Intel's view that PCs are its bread and butter products. In retrospect it was probably a mistake on my part in earlier years to think that Intel would want to, or need to reengineer itself for storage market. When the PC and server markets are doing well, then Intel doesn't have to worry about less profitable product lines.

Sony - despite the company's optimism about the tape backup market, this market, in which Sony is one of the most significant suppliers of media, and one of the leading manufacturers of tape drives and library systems, has been declining in recent years as users have started experimenting with the faster and cheaper alternative of disk to disk backup. Even if the tape library market does show some modest revenue growth in the next few years as predicted by Freeman Reports the growth rate will be substantially less than the backup segment as a whole. Sony's other main footprint in storage is in the faster growing flash memory market. But there's strong competition and it's unlikely that Sony will be able to dominate it. Sony doesn't disclose its storage revenues, which I believe is in the ballpark $2 to $3 billion. That's substantial, but not quite enough to make it into this list.

Fujitsu - although Fujitsu shipped around 10 million hard disk drives in 2003 that's still lower volume than the other HDD rivals listed here. In March 2004 Fujitsu sold its storage software business Softek to a management buyout team, also reducing its storage revenue. Fujitsu's company report in April 2004 cited high development costs and losses in all its software activities which may have contributed to the manufacturer's decision to reduce its exposure. But another factor may be that the software company was hampered from making alliances with other computer oems because of its server/PC parent.



What about Solid State Disks?

It was too early for solid state disk companies to make an appearance in this year's list, even those with annual growth rates above 100% are too small... for now. But I expect to see some SSD companies making a debut at the low end of the list in next year's edition of this article which will predict the top storage companies in 2007.
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the Biggest Storage Companies in 2012
Editor:- June 27, 2008 - STORAGEsearch.com published a new article which asks the question - "who will be the 10 Biggest Storage Companies in 2012?"

This carries on a popular series of annual articles first published in 2001 - which made remarkably accurate long range (3 years ahead) predictions in the storage market.
predicting the future article But for reasons explained in the new article, it may be the last one in the series. ...read the article
.
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