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by
Zsolt Kerekes, editor
Analysts
will look back on
2010 as - "Year
1 of the SSD Market Bubble."
Fermentation has
already begun.
The 2010 SSD harvest will be a memorable vintage.
Can
you realistically sample the benefits of heady new
SSD-powered apps and
avoid the risk of painful hangovers? |
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2010 - 1st Fizz in the SSD Market Bubble
I called 2009 -
the Year of SSD
Market Confusion.
When I was deciding on a suitable headline
for 2010 I was tempted to take the easy way out and simply refer to it as
"the Year of Even Greater Market Confusion". But that would have
missed the essential elements of what I think will make 2010 different.
We
are now at a stage in the development of the SSD market - where even the
dogs in the street know this is going to be a multibillion dollar market.
The days of the "SSD deniers" and "SSD market entry
procrastinators" are behind us.
In one way that's a good thing.
But in another important way - it's not.
Senior management in all sizes
of storage company now understand that the risk of saying nothing about
their SSD plans (whether they exist in reality or not) is that customers will
filter them out of the SSD decision loop. If you don't have a product line
that's shipping - tough luck! Customers will no longer wait for you to catch up
with what they expect to hear about this important subject.
Faced with
the risk of being sidelined - we already
saw in 2009
that what vendors will do in this predicament - is to throw any product at the
wall that they think they can get to market. And in 2010 we're going to see an
avalanche of really badly designed and untried SSD technologies (and more
prototypes masquerading as real products) coming to market and hoping to hit
your visibility horizon.
To make matters worse - there will also be
plenty more examples of SSD technologies which might work in some applications
- being mis-marketed into applications which are completely unsuitable. The
factors contributing to this will be:-
- greed and pressure to compete and survive at any cost
SSD
revenue will exceed $10 billion / year sometime in the next several years.
That's old news. I published that market potential size prediction back in
2003. But it won't stop
there. I now have good
reasons for thinking that SSDs have the potential to eventually become a
$100 billion / year market by the close of this decade. That's why I
was careful to call 2010 - "Year 1 of the SSD Bubble." This bubble is
going to steam into a tornado.
- lack of education in the SSD vendor community (many of who don't
know any more than you do), and the difficulty of arbitrating between contrary
and conflicting claims about reliability
- as in any bubble - the confidence that participating in a fast
growing market produces better business results than not participating at all.
2010
will a year of many broken reputations and promises in the SSD market. How will
you cope? Who can you trust?
You've already made the 1st important
step. Many of the key thinkers and decision makers in the SSD market have used
StorageSearch.com as an aid to set the direction of their compass. With their
help, and with your help and together - we're going to do our best to help you
emerge at the other end of this bubble - stronger than you went in - rather than
burned out and disillusioned.
...Later:- the article above was written before 2010 had
started.
What did happen? - These articles below give a month by month
detailed narrative of key events, products and market developments in the SSD
market in 2010
2010 Q1 - SSD
market milestones
2010 Q2 - SSD
market milestones
2010 Q3 to Q4 - SSD
market milestones |
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Experienced SSD Buyer Seeks Trustworthy
Partner.
In 2010 over 80% of SSD business could
be decided by power SSD specifiers who are no longer SSD virgins.
How
was it for you?
For many
2009 was a
rite of passage - and when they choose products for their next projects they'll
be looking for more caring, trustworthy partners - not just suppliers who
look good in the disco
lights. Much of that SSD reputation - good or bad - is already in the
public domain. But some is not.
The
SSD Bookmarks
safely introduces you to other high quality SSD resource sites - suggested by
SSD industry leaders.
Branding Strategies in
the SSD Market is a series of case studies showing how SSD companies have
used various brand messages to signal what they are all about. (Not just a bunch
of chips in a box.) | |
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| SSDs - the big picture |
| Editor:-
StorageSearch.com was the
world's 1st publication to provide continuous editorial coverage and analysis
of SSDs (in 1998) and in the 12 years which have followed we've led the market
through many interesting and confusing times. |
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If you often find yourself
explaining to your VC,
lawyer or non technical BBQ guests why you spend so much time immersed in SSD
web pages - and need a single, simple, not very technical reference to
suggest - this may be the link they need. | | | | |
